Fenton N, Lagnado D, Dahlman C, Neil M(2019). The Opportunity Prior: A proof-based prior for criminal cases. Law, Probability and Risk
Fenton N, Neil M, Yet B, Lagnado D(2019). Analyzing the Simonshaven Case Using Bayesian Networks. Top Cogn Sci
FENTON NE, NEIL M, NOGUCHI T(2019). An extension to the noisy-OR function to resolve the ‘explaining away’ deficiency for practical Bayesian network problem. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering
Neil M, Fenton N, Lagnado D, Gill RD(2019). Modelling competing legal arguments using Bayesian model comparison and averaging. Artificial Intelligence and Law
FENTON NE, NOGUCHI T, NEIL M(2018). Addressing the Practical Limitations of Noisy-OR using Conditional Inter-causal Anti-Correlation with Ranked Nodes. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering
OSMAN M, FENTON NE, Pilditch T, Lagnado D, NEIL M(2018). Who do we trust on social policy interventions. Basic and Applied Social Psychology
Osman M, Fenton N, Pilditch T, Lagnado D, Neil M(2018). Whom Do We Trust on Social Policy Interventions?. Basic and Applied Social Psychology
YET B, NEIL M, FENTON N, CONSTANTINOU AC, DEMENTIEV E(2018). An Improved Method for Solving Hybrid Influence Diagrams. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
FENTON NE, NEIL M(2018). Lawnmowers versus terrorists: A highly misleading view of risk. Significance vol. 15, (1) 12-15.
Yet B, Constantinou A, Fenton N, Neil M(2018). Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information in Hybrid Models Using Dynamic Discretization. IEEE Access vol. 6, 7802-7817.
FENTON NE, NEIL M (2018). Are lawnmowers a greater risk than terrorists?. Abstract: java.sql.Clob org.hibernate.engine.jdbc.WrappedClob java.io.Serializable ,
FENTON NE, Lagnado D, Dahlman C, Neil M (2017). The Opportunity Prior: A Simple and Practical Solution to the Prior Probability Problem for Legal Cases. ACM. Conference: International Conference on AI and the Law (ICAIL 17) (Kings College, London) from: 12/06/2017 to: 15/06/2017,
Neil M, Fenton N(2017). Risk Management Using Bayesian Networks. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Morrison GS, Kaye DH, Balding DJ, Taylor D, Dawid P, Aitken CGG, Gittelson S, Zadora G et al.(2017). A comment on the PCAST report: Skip the "match"/"non-match" stage. Forensic Sci Int vol. 272, e7-e9.
Fenton N, Neil M, Lagnado D, William M, Yet B, CONSTANTINOU AC(2016). How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models. Knowledge-Based Systems
FENTON NE, neil M, Berger D(2016). Bayes and the Law. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application vol. 3, 51-77.
Yet B, CONSTANTINOU AC, Fenton N, Neil M, Luedeling E, Shepherd K(2016). A Bayesian Network Framework for Project Cost, Benefit and Risk Analysis with an Agricultural Development Case Study. Expert Systems with Applications
CONSTANTINOU AC, FENTON N, NEIL M(2016). Integrating expert knowledge with data in Bayesian networks: Preserving data-driven expectations when the expert variables remain unobserved. Expert Systems with Applications
Constantinou AC, Yet B, Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W(2016). Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine vol. 66, 41-52.
Constantinou AC, Yet B, Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W(2016). Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences. Artif Intell Med vol. 66, 41-52.
FENTON NE, Zhou Y, Hospedales T, Neil M (2015). Probabilistic Graphical Models Parameter Learning with Transferred Prior and Constraints. http://auai.org/uai2015/proceedings.shtml. Conference: Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (Amsterdam, Netherlands) from: 12/07/2015 to: 16/07/2015, 972-981.
Zhou Y, Fenton N, Hospedales TM, Neil M (2015). Probabilistic graphical models parameter learning with transferred prior and constraints. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence - Proceedings of the 31st Conference, UAI 2015. 972-981.
Lin P, Neil M, Fenton NE(2014). Risk Aggregation in the presence of Discrete Causally Connected Random Variables. Annals of Actuarial Science vol. 8, (2) 298-319.
Fenton N, Lagnado D, Hsu A, Berger D, Neil M(2014). Response to "on the use of the likelihood ratio for forensic evaluation: response to Fenton et al.". Sci Justice vol. 54, (4) 319-320.
Zhou Y, Fenton N, Neil M(2014). An extended MPL-C model for Bayesian network parameter learning with exterior constraints. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) vol. 8754, 581-596.
Zhou Y, Fenton N, Neil M(2014). Bayesian network approach to multinomial parameter learning using data and expert judgments. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning vol. 55, Article 5, 1252-1268.
Fenton NE, Neil M, Hsu A(2014). Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors. Artificial Intelligence and Law vol. 22, (1) 1-28.
Fenton NE, Neil M(2014). Decision Support Software for Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Bayesian Networks. IEEE Software vol. 31, (2) 21-26.
Fenton N, Berger D, Lagnado D, Neil M, Hsu A(2014). When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case). Science and Justice vol. 54, (4) 274-287.
Constantinou AC, Fenton NE, Neil M(2013). Profiting from an inefficient association football gambling market: Prediction, risk and uncertainty using Bayesian networks. KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS vol. 50, 60-86.
FENTON NE, Neil M, Lagnado D(2013). A General Structure for Legal Arguments About Evidence Using Bayesian Networks. Cognitive Science vol. 37, (1) 61-102.
Zhou Y, Fenton N, Neil M, Zhu C (2013). Incorporating Expert Judgement into Bayesian Network Machine Learning. Proceedings of the Twenty-Third International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. 3249-3250.
Fenton N, Berger D, Lagnado D, Neil M, Hsu A(2013). When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case). Science and Justice
Constantinou A, FENTON NE, Neil M(2012). pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes. Knowledge Based Systems vol. 36, 322-339.
Neil M, Chen X, Fenton NE(2012). Optimizing the Calculation of Conditional Probability Tables in Hybrid Bayesian Networks using Binary Factorization. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering vol. 7, (24) Article 12852804, 1306-1312.
Neil M, Marquez D(2012). Availability modelling of repairable systems using Bayesian networks. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence vol. 25, (4) 698-704.
FENTON NE, Lagnado D, Neil M(2012). Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning. Argument and Computation vol. 4, (1) 46-63.
FENTON NE, Neil M(2012). Risk Assessment with Bayesian Networks. CRC Press (London),
Fenton N, Neil M(2012). Risk assessment and decision analysis with bayesian networks.
FENTON NE, Neil M(2011). Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks. Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy vol. 36, 114-150.
FENTON NE, Neil M(2011). The use of Bayes' and causal modelling in decision making, uncertainty and risk. UPGRADE, the Journal of CEPIS (Council of European Professional Informatics Societies) vol. 12, (5) 10-21.
Fenton N, Neil M(2010). Comparing risks of alternative medical diagnosis using Bayesian arguments. J Biomed Inform vol. 43, (4) 485-495.
Neil M, Marquez D, Fenton N(2010). Improved Reliability Modeling using Bayesian Networks and Dynamic Discretization. Journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety vol. 95, (4) 412-425.
Neil M, Hager D(2009). Modeling Operational Risk in Financial Institutions using Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks. Journal of Operational Risk vol. 4, (1) 3-33.
Hearty P, Fenton N, Marquez D, Neil M(2009). Predicting Project Velocity in XP Using a Learning Dynamic Bayesian Network Model. IEEE T SOFTWARE ENG vol. 35, (1) 124-137.
N Fenton MN, Radli¿ski ¿(2009). Software Project and Quality Modelling Using Bayesian Networks. Artificial Intelligence Applications for Improved Software Engineering Development: New Prospects. (Part of the Advances in Intelligent Information Technologies (AIIT) Book Series), Information Science Reference.
Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton N(2008). Solving dynamic fault trees using a new hybrid Bayesian network inference algorithm. 2008 Mediterranean Conference on Control and Automation - Conference Proceedings, MED'08609-614.
Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W, Hearty P, Radlinski L, Krause P(2008). On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets. EMPIRICAL SOFTWARE ENGINEERING vol. 13, (5) 499-537.
Fenton NE, Neil M (2008). Avoiding legal fallacies in practice using Bayesian networks. Conference: Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics (Lausanne, Switzerland) from: 20/08/2008 to: 23/08/2008,
Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D, Fenton NE, Hearty P(2008). Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. Reliability Engineering and System Safety vol. 93, (7) 933-939.
Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton N (2008). Solving Dynamic Fault Trees using a New Hybrid Bayesian Network Inference Algorithm. 2008 MEDITERRANEAN CONFERENCE ON CONTROL AUTOMATION, VOLS 1-4. 1526-1531.
Neil M, Marquez D, Fenton NE(2008). Using Bayesian Networks to Model the Operational Risk to Information Technology Infrastructure in Financial Institutions. Journal of Financial Transformation vol. 22, 131-138.
FENTON NE, Neil M, Marquez D(2008). Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O, Journal of Risk and Reliability vol. 222, (4) 701-712.
Fenton NE, Neil M, Caballero JG(2007). Using ranked nodes to model qualitative judgments in Bayesian Networks. IEEE T KNOWL DATA EN vol. 19, (10) 1420-1432.
Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D(2007). Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization. STAT COMPUT vol. 17, (3) 219-233.
Neil M, FENTON NE, Hearty P, Marquez D, Tailor M(2007). Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety vol. 93, 1-19.
Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton NE (2007). A new Bayesian Network approach to Reliability modelling. 5th International Mathematical Methods in Reliability Conference (MMR 07).
Radli¿ski ¿, Fenton NE, Marquez D, Hearty P(2007). Empirical Analysis of Software Defect Types. Information Systems Architecture and Technology: Information Technology and Web Engineering: Models, Concepts and Challenges (Proceedings of 28 International ISAT Conference), Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej, Wrocław
Radli¿ski ¿, Fenton NE, Neil M, Marquez D (2007). Improved Decision-Making for Software Managers Using Bayesian Networks. 11th IASTED Int. Conf. Software Engineering and Applications (SEA). 13–19-13–19.
Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton NE (2007). Improved Dynamic Fault Tree modelling using Bayesian Networks. The 37th Annual IEEE/IFIP International Conference on Dependable Systems and Networks, DSN 2007.
Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D(2007). Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization. Statistics and Computing vol. 17, Article 3, 219-233-219-233.
Fenton NE, Neil M (2007). Managing Risk in the Modern World: Bayesian Networks and the Applications.
Radli¿ski ¿, Fenton NE, Neil M, Marquez D(2007). Modelling Prior Productivity and Defect Rates in a Causal Model for Software Project Risk Assessment. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies vol. 16, Article 4A, 256-260-256-260.
Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W, Hearty P, Marquez D, Krause P, Mishra R(2007). Predicting software defects in varying development lifecycles using Bayesian nets. INFORM SOFTWARE TECH vol. 49, (1) 32-43.
Fenton NE, Neil M, Marsh W, Hearty P, Radlinski L, Krause P (2007). Project Data Incorporating Qualitative Factors for Improved Software Defect Prediction. Conference: ICSE PROMISE (Predictive Models in Software Engineering) 07 (Minneapolis, USA) from: 05/2007
Khodakarami V, Fenton N, Neil M(2007). Project Scheduling: Improved approach to incorporate uncertainty using Bayesian Networks. Project Management Journal vol. 38, 39-49.
Neil M, Fenton N, Marquez D(2007). Using Bayesian Networks and Simulation for Data Fusion and Risk Analysis. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series: Information and Communication Security, Editors: Skanata, Byrd, DM, vol. 13, IOS Press, Nieuwe Hemweg 6B, 1013 BG Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Fenton NE, Neil M, Gallan J(2007). Using Ranked nodes to model qualitative judgements in Bayesian Networks. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering vol. 19, Article 10, 1420-1432-1420-1432.
Neil M, Fenton N, MARSH DWR (2006). A Software Metrics Challenge: Data for Project Prediction. Conference: 29th International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE 2007), Minneapolis, USA
Fenton N, Neil M(2006). Comment: Expert elicitation for reliable system design. Statistical Science vol. 21, (4) 451-453.
Fenton N, Neil M(2006). Expert elicitation for reliable system design - Comment. STAT SCI vol. 21, (4) 451-453.
Joseph A, Fenton NE, Neil M(2006). Predicting football results using Bayesian nets and other machine learning techniques. KNOWL-BASED SYST vol. 19, (7) 544-553.
Neil M, FENTON NE (2006). AgenaRisk. Agena Ltd
Neil M, FENTON NE, Krause P, Mishra R(2006). Bayesian networks for software process control. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Fenton NE, Neil M(2006). Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design. Statistical Science vol. 21, Article 4, 451-453-451-453.
Neil M, FENTON NE, Radlinski L(2006). Improved Bayesian Networks for Software Project Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Discretisation. Software Engineering Techniques: Design for Quality (Proceedings of SET 2006, Warsaw, Poland, Oct 2006), Editors: Sacha, K, Springer (Boston),
Neil M, Tailor M, Fenton N, Marquez D, Hearty P (2006). Modeling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks. First International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security (ARES’06). 817-823-817-823.
Neill M, Tailor M, Marquez D, Fenton N, Hearty P (2006). Modeling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks. First International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security, Proceedings. 817-821.
Neil M, FENTON NE, Marsh W, Mishra R, Krause P (2006). Predicting Software Defects in Varying Development Lifecycles using Bayesian Nets. Conference: ICSE (International Conference on Software Engineering) 2006, May 20-28, 2006, Shanghai, China
Neil M, Fenton N, Tailor M(2005). Using Bayesian networks to model expected and unexpected operational losses. RISK ANAL vol. 25, (4) 963-972.
Fenton NE, Neil M(2005). A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Models. Machine Learning Applications in Software Engineering, Editors: Zhang, D, Tsai, JJP, World Scientific Publishing Co
Hearty P, FENTON NE, Neil M, Cates P (2005). Automated population of causal models for improved software risk assessment. Conference: 20th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering (Long Beach, California, USA) from: 07/11/2005 to: 11/11/2005, 433-434.
NEIL MD, Fenton NE (2005). Improved Methods for building large-scale Bayesian Networks. Conference: Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) 2005, Edinburgh University
NEIL MD, Fenton NE (2005). Improved Software Defect Prediction. Conference: 10th European SEPG, London
Fenton NE, Neil M(2004). Combining evidence in risk analysis using Bayesian networks. Safety Critical Systems Newsletter vol. 14, Article 1, 8-13-8-13.
Fenton N, Marsh W, Neil M, Cates P, Forey S, Tailor M (2004). Making resource decisions for software projects. ICSE 2004: 26TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, PROCEEDINGS. 397-406.
Neil M, FENTON NE (2003). Improved Programme Selection. Notes: International Patent, WO/2003/090466,
NEIL M, Fenton NE (2003). Improved programme selection. no. PCT/GB2003/001604,
Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S, Harris R(2003). Assessing Vehicle Reliability using Bayesian Networks. Global Vehicle Reliability, Editors: Strutt, JE, Hall, PL, Professional Engineering Publishing
Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S, Harris R (2003). Assessing vehicle reliability using Bayesian networks. GLOBAL VEHICLE RELIABILITY. Editors: Strutt, JE, Hall, PL, 25-41.
Neil M, Shaw R, Johnson S, Malcolm B, Donald I, Qiu XC (2003). Measuring & Managing Culturally Inspired Risk. Proceedings of the 11th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium 2003. Conference: 11th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium (Bristol, UK) from: 04/02/2003 to: 06/02/2003, 43-61.
Neil M, Malcolm B, Shaw R (2003). Modeling an Air Traffic Control Environment Using Bayesian Belief Networks. 21st International System Safety Conference 2003. from: 04/08/2003 to: 08/08/2003,
Neil M, FENTON NE, Krause P(2003). Software Quality Prediction Using Bayesian Networks. Software Engineering with Computational Intelligence. Khoshgoftaar, TM (ed), Kluwer
Fenton N, Krause P, Neil M(2002). Software measurement: Uncertainty and causal modeling. IEEE SOFTWARE vol. 19, (4) 116-+.
Fenton NE, Krause P, Neil M(2002). Probabilistic Modelling for Software Quality Control. Journal of Applied Non-Classical Logics vol. 12, (2) 173-188.
FENTON NE, Neil M, Krause P(2002). Probalistic Modelling for Software Quality Control. Journal of Applied Non-Classical Logics vol. 12, (2) 173-188.
Fenton N, Neil M(2001). Making decisions: using Bayesian nets and MCDA. KNOWL-BASED SYST vol. 14, (7) 307-325.
Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S, Harris R(2001). Using Bayesian belief networks to predict the reliability of military vehicles. COMPUT CONTROL ENG J vol. 12, (1) 11-20.
Fenton N, Krause P, Neil M (2001). Probabilistic modelling for software quality control. Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (Subseries of Lecture Notes in Computer Science). vol. 2143, 444-453.
Neil M, FENTON NE, Krause P (2001). Software Metrics: Uncertainty and causal Modelling. Conference: EuroSPI conference, Limerick Institute of Technology
Neil M, Fenton N, Nielsen L(2000). Building large-scale Bayesian networks. KNOWL ENG REV vol. 15, (3) 257-284.
Littlewood B, Strigini L, Wright D, Fenton NE, Neil M(2000). Bayesian Belief Networks for Safety Assessment of Computer-based Systems. System Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Applications, Editors: Gelenbe, E, CRC Press, Boca Raton
Fenton NE, Neil M(2000). Bayesian belief nets: a causal model for predicting defect rates and resource requirements. Software Testing and Quality Engineering vol. 2, Article 1, 48-53-48-53.
Neil M, Fenton N, Nielsen L(2000). Building large-scale Bayesian Networks. The Knowledge Engineering Review, 15(3) vol. 15, Article 3, 257-284-257-284.
Fenton NE, Neil M (2000). Software metrics: roadmap. ICSE 2000: Proceedings of the Conference on The Future of Software Engineering. 357-370-357-370.
Fenton NE, Neil M(2000). The Jury Fallacy and the use of Bayesian nets to simplify probabilistic legal arguments. Mathematics Today (Bulletin of the IMA) vol. 36, (6) 180-187.
Fenton NE, Neil M(1999). A critique of software defect prediction models. Software Engineering, IEEE Transactions on vol. 25, Article 5, 675-689-675-689.
Fenton NE, Neil M(1999). Software metrics: successes, failures and new directions. Journal of Systems and Software vol. 47, Article 2-3, 149-157-149-157.
Fenton NE, Neil M(1998). A strategy for improving safety related software engineering standards. Software Engineering, IEEE Transactions on vol. 24, Article 11, 1002-1013-1002-1013.
Fenton NE, Littlewood B, Neil M, Strigini L, Sutcliffe A, Wright D(1998). Assessing dependability of safety critical systems using diverse evidence. IEE Proceedings Software vol. 145, Article 1, 35-39-35-39.
Courtois PJ, Fenton NE, Littlewood B, Neil M, Strigini L, Wright D (1998). Examination of bayesian belief network for safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems. report no. DeVa ESPRIT Pro,
Neil M, Ostralenk G, Tobin M, Southworth M(1998). Lessons from using Z to specify a software tool. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering vol. 24, Article 1, 15-23-15-23.
Neil M, Fenton N (1996). Predicting Software Quality using Bayesian Belief Networks. Proceedings of the 21st Annual Software Engineering Workshop at NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre.
Littlewood B, Neil M, Ostrolenk G(1996). The Role of Models in Managing Uncertainty of Software-Intensive Systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety vol. 46, 87-95-87-95.
Littlewood B, Neil M, Ostrolenk G(1996). Uncertainty in Software-Intensive Systems. High Integrity Systems Journal vol. 1, Article 5, 407-413-407-413.
Bache RM, Neil MD (1995). Introducing Metrics into Industry: A Perspective on GQM. Software Quality Assurance and Measurement: A Worldwide Perspective.
Neil MD(1995). Statistical Control of Software Quality. McGraw Hill
Ostrolenk G, Tobin M, Southworth M, Neil M (1994). Cost Effective Evaluation of a COBOL Parser Using an Operational Profile. Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Conference of the Centre for Software Reliability (CSR).
Neil MD(1994). Measurement as an alternative to Bureaucracy for the achievement of Software Quality. Software Quality Journal vol. 3, 65-78-65-78.
Neil MD, Bache RM(1994). Metrics Analysis. McGraw Hill
Neil MD, Lano K (1993). Approaches to Maintenance Process Improvement via Measurement. European Conference on Software Maintenance. The CSM (Centre for Software Maintenance), Durham University.
Neil MD, Bache RM(1993). Data Linkage Maps. Journal for Software Maintenance: Research and Practice vol. 5, Article 3, 223-240-223-240.
Woherem EE, Neil MD, Estdale JF (1993). Software Process Improvement through the GQM Approach: A Maintenance Case Study, Lake Tahoe, Nevada, USA. 3rd International Conference on Software Quality.
Neil MD(1992). Multivariate Assessment of Software Products. Journal of Software Testing, Verification and Reliability vol. 1, Article 4, 17-37-17-37.
Neil MD, Slater D, Cole RJ(1990). Measures for Maintenance Management: A Case Study. Journal for Software Maintenance: Research and Practice vol. 2, Article 4, 223-240-223-240.
Bache RM, Neil M(1990). Validating Technologies for Certifying Software Products. Proceedings of IFIP Conference on Approving Software Products (ASP-90), North-Holland